Groundhog Day ... the "holiday," not the film

Today is 2 February.  In the US and Canada, a furry little mammal called a groundhog emerges from its underground burrow on this day and so it is known as "Groundhog Day."  According to Groundhog Day tradition, if the groundhog sees its shadow, then we are "doomed" to six more weeks of winter.  According to Wikipedia, the tradition began as a Pennsylvania German custom in southeastern and central Pennsylvania in the 18th and 19h centuries.  It supposedly has its origins in ancient European weather lore.  But in the ancient tradition, the prognosticating animals are either a hedgehog, a badger or a sacred bear.  The groundhog is a North American variation.  The style of dress and the ritual around the events of the day, especially in Pennsylvania, are uniquely North American variations.  Guess which one is the groundhog in the photo below.

The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania where large crowds have gathered for the holiday since 1886.   The most famous resident of Punxsutawney (from the Delaware Indian term translated as "town of the sandflies") is "Punxsutawney Phil," a groundhog who obligingly goes through his paces on schedule every year.  YouTube shows this year's event where Phil duly made his prediction of "six more weeks of winter" with help from his human handlers and to accolades from the crowd.

While Punxsutawney Phil's big moment and close interaction with human crowds generally takes place with grand fanfare on Groundhog Day, this particular groundhog doesn't even live underground as one might reasonably believe.  No, he lives in an enclosure next to the children's section of the Punxsutawney Memorial Library with his "wife" Phyllis (of course!) and a couple of other groundhogs.  After his prognosticating is finished, he generally spends the rest of the year eating, sleeping and whatever else groundhogs do when they are not in the wild.  It's not bad work if you can get it.  "Phil" also either has incredible "longevity" genes or is more likely a succession of groundhogs.  His handlers claim that he is 124 years old.  Contrast this with the normal life span of six years in the wild and ten years in captivity.

According to a recent article (and I can't believe that I am actually quoting Fox News here), "[t]he legend of the groundhog's forecasting powers arguably dates back to the early days of Christianity in Europe when clear skies on the holiday Candlemas Day, celebrated on Feb. 2, meant an extended winter. The tradition was then brought to Germany, with the German twist being that if the sun made an appearance on Candlemas, a hedgehog would cast its shadow, thus predicting six more weeks of bad weather. More specifically, the legend states: 'For as the sun shines on Candlemas Day, so far will the snow swirl in May....' "

This explanation has cleared up something that has always bothered my linear-type logic.  It always seemed to me that the groundhog could only see its shadow if the sun was shining. 

Wouldn't sunshine generally indicate warmth and the imminent advent of spring?   The legend "explains" the fallacy in that logic.  The prediction has nothing to do with the shadow, but everything to do with the legend ... and with the fact that winter often continues after the so-called spring solstice.